Formue

Finanshus: Indikator siger, at vi er i midt i en recession, men den er ikke til at se

Uddrag fra finanshuse:

1. Based on consensus forecasts, S&P 500 earnings for Q2 are expected to decrease -7.3% Y/Y on -0.4% lower revenues, which would be the third quarter of declines and the most negative earnings growth since Q2 of 2020.

2. Materials and energy are expected to post the largest declines, and if you exclude energy for the estimates the growth rate would only be -1.0%.

3. Current S&P 500 consensus earnings growth forecasts for the next three quarters are -1.4%, 7.5% and 7.7%, respectively. (Sanford Bernstein)

Earnings if (IF) there would be a recession…

Typically, in a recession, earnings fall by at least -20% (-27% real) and that’s even if we exclude the GFC, when S&P 500 EPS declined by -42%. Thus far, S&P 500 EPS is down -9% since the June 2022 high. EPS has never fallen more than -9% without then developing into a full-blown recession (red circles).

Macro Strategy

Recession is not just imminent, but present

The following charts, which argue that recession is not just imminent, but present, really makes you go hmmmm….

Macro Strategy

Forget the yield curve

GS: “We don’t share the widespread concern about yield curve inversion….Three things are different about the current cycle. First, the term premium is well below its long-term average, so it takes fewer expected rate cuts to invert the curve. Second, there is a plausible path to Fed easing just on the back of lower inflation—in fact, both our and the FOMC’s non-recession projections call for more than 200bp of gradual cuts in the next 2-3 years. Third, if forecasters are overly pessimistic now, rates market investors—and thus the expectations priced into the yield curve—are probably also overly pessimistic”

Goldman

What goes up must come down

The collapse in US CPI over the past year is extreme, falling from 9.1% to 3%. BofA writes: “…since 1980, only in 8 cases had inflation fallen by more than 6% in a year, and only in France in 1990 from a starting point lower than 10%.”

BofA

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