Resume af teksten:
Kampen om Hormuzstrædet intensiveres, med Iran og USA involveret i angreb på hinandens mål. USA har besluttet at trække undtagelsen tilbage, der tillader Iran at sælge olie, hvilket har medført stigende oliepriser fra 73 til 76 USD pr. tønde. Amerikanske aktiemarkeder lukkede lavere i går, med Nasdaq ned med 1,2% og S&P500 med 0,4%. I Asien ses blandede markedsudviklinger. New Zealands centralbank har hævet renten til 2,50%. Marine Le Pen har annonceret sin kandidatur til det kommende præsidentvalg i Frankrig på trods af sin nylige dom. IMF opdaterer sine økonomiske prognoser, hvor energiusikkerhed og downside risici fortsat er i fokus. Sveriges økonomi viser tegn på stærkere vækst i andet kvartal, med forventning om lavere inflationstal i juni.
Fra SEB:
Global key stories
The battle for the Strait of Hormuz continues and the fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran is once again being challenged. Iran yesterday attacked three commercial ships, the US carried out a series of attacks on Iranian targets during the night and communicated that the exemption for Iran to sell oil will be withdrawn and Iran subsequently attacked US targets in the region. Oil prices have risen from about USD 73 to USD 76 per barrel over the past 24 hours, but have been fairly stable during the night.
US stock markets fell yesterday, with the Nasdaq closing at -1.2% and the S&P500 at -0.4%. Developments in Asia are mixed this morning; Korean and Japanese indices are falling, while most Chinese ones are rising. As expected, the New Zealand central bank raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% and more rate hikes are signaled. Futures are pointing slightly up in the US and slightly down in Europe ahead of today’s trading as uncertainty has ramped up again in the Middle East and in anticipation of the Fed’s minutes.
Interesting data calendar – FOMC minutes and Swedish data. After yesterday’s relative data calm, we now get several interesting data points, mainly from Sweden and the US. In the FOMC minutes, it will be exciting to see how the discussions went about economic forecasts and lower energy prices, as well as about possible signals on the working groups that will investigate the Fed’s communication, balance sheet, productivity development and inflation framework, among other things. For Sweden, we get June inflation, production and growth figures for May and housing prices according to Mäklarstatistik.
Will Le Pen be a presidential candidate after all? After yesterday’s announcement that the conviction against France’s Marine Le Pen stands, albeit with lighter sentences than before, Le Pen said in an appearance last night that she is now a candidate in next year’s presidential election. The legal turns are not entirely clear about when she will wear the electronic tracking device she has been sentenced to and she seems to have changed her previous statement that she will not run if she wears one. Le Pen also says that the verdict will be appealed. We’ll have to see if the announcements can be changed again.
Updated IMF forecasts. The previous forecast from April was unsurprisingly characterized by energy uncertainty, negative alternative scenarios and substantial downside risks. Oil prices have since fallen back and have been more in line with April’s main scenario than the more negative ones. Nevertheless, it is probably too early to talk about upward revisions to growth forecasts, but instead reduced risks of a more negative development in today’s forecast update.
Nordic key stories
Lower Swedish inflation rate in June after surprisingly high figures in May? June inflation is expected to show a slightly lower inflation rate than in May for most inflation measures, we expect the CPIF to fall from 1.5% in May to 1.3% in June. Several forces are pulling in different directions at the moment; For example, higher electricity prices and the price of travel are pushing up inflation, while lower fuel prices are working in the opposite direction. Lower VAT and excise duties are holding back inflation figures. Core inflation is expected to rise gradually over the remainder of the year, but upside risks from commodity prices have clearly diminished. Overall, reduced upside risks to inflation send reassuring signals to the Riksbank. Read more about the inflation figure here .
A little stronger Swedish growth in Q2? Sentiment indicators for the industry point to good momentum. Output in the private sector rose at a good pace in April, and both the PMI and KI’s barometer point to broad-based strength.
Continued rising Swedish home prices. Housing prices according to Mäklarstatistik continue to confirm the picture of gradually rising prices. According to our seasonally adjusted figures, prices rose in June for both detached houses and tenant-owned apartments, and in total prices have risen by more than 2 percent since the beginning of the year.
Kilde: SEB, https://research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/reports/78113
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