Resume af teksten:
Goldman Sachs Research har reduceret deres vurdering af sandsynligheden for recession i USA fra 25% til 15% over de næste 12 måneder, efter en forlængelse af våbenhvilen mellem USA og Iran. Brent råolie forventes at handle omkring $80 pr. tønde ved årets slutning. Forbedringen i arbejdsmarkedet og lavere gaspriser har øget forventningerne til USA’s BNP-vækst til 2% i anden halvdel af året. I markedet for børsnoteringer er der en markant stigning i USA, med omkring 50 selskaber offentligt noteret i 2026 og en udstedelsesværdi på cirka $120 milliarder. Sydkoreanske virksomheder forventes at spille en førende rolle i udviklingen af humanoide robotter, med en anslået global produktionsandel på 30% i 2035 ifølge Goldman Sachs Research.
Fra Goldman Sachs:
The recent agreement extending a ceasefire between the US and Iran has reduced the downside risks to Goldman Sachs Research’s forecast for the US economy, according to Chief Economist Jan Hatzius. Our commodities strategists project Brent crude oil will trade at about $80 per barrel by the end of the year, compared with a peak of about $118 in April during the war between the US, Israel, and Iran (as of June 22). The risks to Goldman Sachs Research’s oil forecast cut both ways: Iran ’ s announcement on Saturday of the renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for energy shipping, served as a reminder that oil flows might only recover slowly. On the other hand, a near-term glut could develop as oil is released quickly into a market that was already oversupplied before the war.
Goldman Sachs Research reduced its estimate of US recession risk for the next 12 months from 25% to the long-term norm of 15%. This is below our economists’ estimate of 20% on the eve of the war. Hatzius points out that this is because the labor market improvement since then indicates greater underlying resilience. While Goldman Sachs Research still expects growth to remain moderate, the team nudged up its forecast for sequential GDP growth in the second half of the year to 2%. The slightly stronger path reflects a boost to real income from lower gas prices. The economy is also benefiting from the artificial intelligence (AI) boom via higher equity wealth as well as strong capital expenditures. Read the full report from Chief Economist Jan Hatzius for more on Goldman Sachs Research’s estimates for US employment and inflation as well as monetary policy in Japan and the eurozone.
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Does the Boom in US IPOs Signal a Stock Market Bubble?
Ben Snider on Goldman Sachs Exchanges
The IPO market in the US is booming after a four-year stretch of muted public offerings: Around 50 companies have gone public in 2026, about double the number during the same period last year, according to Goldman Sachs Research. Even more remarkable is the size of the deals. At just the halfway mark of the year, 2026 is already roughly tied with the full-year record set in 2021, with about $120 billion in issuance. “To some extent, what’s happening is just a normal recovery,” says Ben Snider, chief US equity strategist, in an episode of the Goldman Sachs Exchanges podcast. In addition, very large companies are coming to the market and there’s immense demand for capital to fund the development of AI.
A surge in offerings reflects positive sentiment on the part of corporate management as well as equity investors, Snider says. “The real concern from investors is, ‘Is this indicative of a kind of euphoric environment that marks the peak of bubbles?’” he adds. There are some similarities to the IPO rush at the turn of the century, Snider says. Equity valuations are very high, though not quite as high as in 2021 or 2000. Investor confidence is elevated, and there’s a focus on technological change amid advances in AI. A key difference between 2026 and previous peaks in the market is the number of IPOs. Over the past 25 years, the market has averaged about 100 deals per year, which is close to the pace so far this year. In contrast, there were more than 250 public offerings in 2021, and there were nearly 400 in 1999. “So although the dollar volume is quite elevated, although we’re seeing an acceleration in activity, to me it still looks like we’re a far cry from that level of euphoric sentiment that we saw in those episodes,” Snider says. Listen to the full episode , or find more of our insights on AI .
South Korean Companies Are Expected to Have a Leading Role in Humanoid Robot Development
South Korean enterprises are emerging as leading suppliers of parts and technology for humanoid robots. These companies are well positioned in part because of their strong auto parts supplier ecosystem, according to Goldman Sachs Research. Robots rely on actuators, the components that mimic human muscles and joints. These devices are similar to the auto parts technology in, for example, electric power steering, braking systems, and autonomous vehicle technology, Do Hyoung Kim, an analyst in Goldman Sachs Research, writes in a report. South Korea’s other advantages in humanoid robot development include the country’s extensive use of industrial robotics in its modern manufacturing economy and a strong culture of early adoption.
The country’s companies are estimated to account for 30% of global humanoid production by 2035, both through direct manufacturing and by supplying critical components like actuators, according to Goldman Sachs Research. The team forecasts that Korean supply chains may support around 74,000 humanoid units by 2030 and 412,000 by 2035. Read the full article .
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