Nedturen i den globale økonomi bremser op

En stribe af de ledende økonomiske indikatorer viste fremgang i maj. Men i de fleste tilfælde afspejler de blot, at tempoet i nedturen er bremset op. Indikatorerne viser, at der er lang vej tilbage til den økonomiske før-kriseaktivitet. Der er dog et par positive overraskelser.

Økonomisk Ugebrev har de seneste måneder haft suspenderet vores konjunkturbarometer for den globale økonomi, fordi der var tale om så dramatisk en opbremsning, at det ikke gav mening at forholde sig til de fleste ledende indikatorer. Nu genoptager vi det globale konjunkturbarometer.

Billedet er fortsat overordnet negativt, men der er en stribe positive signaler, som indikerer, at vi er på vej frem mod en stabilisering af den økonomiske vækst, altså hvor den negative BNP-vækst ikke accelererer yderligere. Men der synes at være meget lang vej, før vi kommer tilbage til den økonomiske aktivitet, som vi havde før coronakrisen. Der kan let gå halvandet til to år.

Det tyske IFO indeks for erhvervstilliden er et meget godt pejlemærke for, hvad der sker. Forventningsindekset er i klar bedring, men fra et meget lavt udgangspunkt: ”In manufacturing, the Business Climate Index rose appreciably. However, this was due only to companies’ much improved expectations. Industrial companies are still a long way from optimism. Their assessment of the current situation was once again markedly worse. In the service sector, the business climate recovered notably from its historic low in April. This is primarily the result of a strong rise in expectations. Service providers also assessed their current situation as slightly better. However, companies are on balance still pessimistic.”

Målingen af den europæiske erhvervstillid fra Markit fortæller samme historie: ”At 39.4, compared to April’s survey record low of 33.4, the index still indicated a considerable rate of contraction in operating conditions. Despite being generally looser across the region compared to April, government restrictions designed to limit the spread of the global coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continued to severely hamper the sector. Latest data indicated that all market groups continued to record notable deteriorations in operating conditions, led by investment goods producers.”

I USA er fortællingen ikke meget anderledes, ifølge den seneste PMI-måling fra IHS : ”May data signalled a slightly softer, but nonetheless severe, contraction in U.S. manufacturing output. The decrease in output was largely driven by a further weakening of client demand and lower new order inflows from both domestic and foreign customers amid the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID19) outbreak. (…) At the same time, lower input buying and weaker overall demand conditions put pressure on suppliers to lower their prices. Consequently, input costs fell again, in turn helping manufacturers to cut their output charges at a record pace as firms sought to remain competitive.”