Resume af teksten:
De amerikanske aktiemarkeder steg, mens renter og oliepriser faldt.
Trump-administrationen godkendte et salg af F-35-fly til Saudi-Arabien for 24,3 mia. dollar.
Kongressen skal fortsat godkende handlen, og der er rejst bekymring om Saudi-Arabiens relationer til Kina.
Forventningen er nu, at Federal Reserve hæver renten igen i december.
Bank of England fastholdt renten på 3,75 procent, men der forventes nu en renteforhøjelse i november.
Bank of Japan hævede renten med 25 basispoint til 1,25 procent, hvorefter yennen svækkedes.
EU besluttede at sende 3,3 mia. euro til Ukraine til indkøb af missiler og droner.
Statsminister Ulf Kristersson har anmodet om sin afsked, og regeringsdannelsen er indledt.
Fra SEB:
Global key stories
The US stock markets rose yesterday (S&P 500 +1.1%; Nasdaq +1.7%) as market interest rates fell, and lower oil prices – possibly linked to some news of renewed diplomatic attempts – strengthened optimism that inflation could be kept under control the day after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates. The euro strengthened slightly against the dollar and the price of gold rose.
The Trump administration yesterday approved the sale of F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia worth US$24.3 billion. However, Congress still needs to approve the deal. Some concerns have been expressed about whether Saudi Arabia’s security relations with China could lead to the transfer of the underlying technology.
We change our forecast and assess that the Fed will make another hike in December. The Fed’s rate hike on Wednesday was accompanied by hawkish signals in both the Fed members’ own forecasts and in the comments of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who echoed many of his arguments from Jackson Hole. The fact that almost all members of the Fed are forecasting at least one more hike this year suggests that the committee thinks a hike is not enough and that new increases in energy prices are worrying members. As before, we believe that underlying inflationary pressures will continue to subside next year. This, in our opinion, paves the way for another cut at the end of 2027, followed by two cut steps in March and June 2028, to a level of 3.25-3.50%. Read more here .
New forecast also for the Bank of England. Yesterday, the central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 3.75% while signalling greater concern about the spillover effects from higher energy prices. We are therefore changing our forecast and now expect a hike in November, but are adamant that interest rate cuts will begin in Q4 2027. Read more here .
As expected, the Bank of Japan today raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.25%. The bank’s comments in connection with the decision did not give clear indications that the Board was considering a further rate hike at its next meeting in October. The market had expected a more hawkish communication and the Japanese yen has therefore weakened after the announcement.
Markets today are also facing so-called “triple witching” – when derivative contracts linked to stocks, index options and futures expire quarterly. Options with a nominal value of over $2 trillion expire today, and this can create unusually high trading volume and sometimes heightened volatility towards closing, especially in the last hour of trading when fund managers and institutions adjust or roll their positions at the same time.
More news related to the Ukraine war. Parliamentary elections begin today in non-democratic Russia and will continue until September 20. In Copenhagen , the NATO Military Committee Conference will start, where the members’ commanders are expected to discuss a further strengthening of the alliance’s collective deterrence and defense, innovation and technology, as well as support for Ukraine. The EU decided yesterday to send EUR 3.3 billion to Ukraine to procure missiles and drones. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned on the same day that Russia plans to carry out “hybrid” drone and missile attacks against countries that support Ukraine, including NATO member Poland. Tusk said there is a real risk that drones or other types of missiles could fly into the territory of one or more NATO countries on the eastern flank and even cause destruction. Several of the country’s airports have experienced disruptions in recent days.
On the agenda in addition to the above, economic statistics mainly include German producer price inflation and US industrial production. In addition, informal meetings of EU finance ministers and central bank governors are being held today, and updated credit ratings are expected today for Greece (Moody’s), Poland (Moody’s) and Sweden (Fitch).
Worth reading from SEB : FI & FX Strategy and comments on Norges Bank’s network report .
Nordic key stories
Our investor survey ahead of the Riksbank’s interest rate meeting shows that the majority do not expect a hike next week. On the other hand, almost everyone expects higher interest rates in December, and in the longer term, expectations differ.
The government formation process is underway. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson yesterday requested his resignation, which started the actual government formation process. Speaker Andreas Norlén accepted the request and announced that he will today hold private talks with representatives of the parliamentary parties. Magdalena Andersson (Social Democratic Party) has invited the other three opposition parties to a group discussion.
Kilde: SEB, https://research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/reports/80817
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
