Resume af teksten:
US-aktier steg på trods af blandede signaler. S&P 500 steg med 0,4%, Dow Jones med 0,3%, og Nasdaq med 0,6%. Semiconductorsektoren viste bekymringer, med fald hos Micron og Intel, mens ASML klarede sig bedre. I Europa faldt Euro Stoxx 50 lidt, mens valutabevægelser var små. I Asien har udviklingen været blandet og mest negativ, med Sydkoreas Kospi ned over 6% efter renteforhøjelse.
Oliepriserne er steget, men ligger stadig under højeste niveauer ved krigens start i Iran. Lavere inflation i USA har reduceret markedets bekymringer for renteforhøjelser fra Federal Reserve. Trump vil holde en tale, der forventes at dække emner som valgintegritet.
I Norden overraskede Norges inflation ved at være lavere end forventet, men nok en renteforhøjelse anses stadig som sandsynlig. Sveriges endelige inflationsdata blev bekræftet højere end forventet, men forventes ikke at påvirke Riksbankens rentepolitik. På Stockholm-børsen havde SEB og Hexatronic stærke rapporter, mens Axfood og Handelsbanken skuffede. Svensk ledighed er stort set uændret fra maj.
Fra SEB:
Global key stories
Despite continued war – US stock markets are up . There were mixed signals on the US stock markets yesterday but they still ended in the green. The S&P 500 rose by 0.4%, the Dow Jones by 0.3% and the Nasdaq by 0.6 %. This is despite some concern in the semiconductor sector, with declines in e.g. Micron and Intel, while industry giant ASML fared better. Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon also rose while SpaceX traded down to the $135 IPO price. In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 fell by a couple of tenths, while currency movements were small. In Asia, the development during the night has been mixed but mostly negative. South Korea’s Kospi is down over 6 % after renewed semiconductor concerns and a rate hike by the central bank (BoK), the first in three years.
Since the Iranian war resumed, oil prices have risen, but there is still a long way to go to reach the highest levels from the start of the war. The moderate market reactions may be due to the fact that the world has shown that it can adjust both supply (increased exports from the US), demand (reduced imports to China) and transport routes (Saudi pipelines). The market also takes note of the fact that Trump’s threats, rhetoric and deadlines are rarely fulfilled. When the price gets too high, primarily for oil and petrol , he backs down and the price falls back.
A boost from lower inflation. Tuesday’s surprisingly low consumer price inflation was followed yesterday by producer prices (PPI), which were also lower than expected. On a monthly basis, the PPI fell by 0.3% (consensus was unchanged) and on a year-on-year basis, the PPI rose by 5.5% (versus the expected 6.2%). Overall, the improved inflation situation reduces market concerns about Fed hikes, which in turn are appreciated by the stock market. Today, we get new US data on the labour market and retail trade, among other things.
After the many conflicting messages – tonight Trump will address the nation. There have been plenty of conflicting messages from the US president in recent days: the ceasefire has been on and off, negotiations ongoing and suspended, the Strait of Hormuz closed and open, passages through the strait free, subject to tariffs, and then free again. All this since Sunday. Tonight (21:00 EST, i.e. 03:00 Swedish time) Trump will give a new “Speech to the Nation”. According to the preliminary information, Trump will talk about a wide range of topics, including election integrity, and the question is whether there will be news about the election system, vote counting, or mail-in voting. Trump’s own promise of “a very big announcement” has created both expectations among supporters and concern among opponents. So, for those who miss a football match to stay awake for tonight, there is an excellent alternative available.
Nordic key stories
Norwegian inflation surprises on the downside, but not enough to stop another hike. After the surprisingly low Norwegian CPI inflation (for June), the figures for the CPI-ATE came out yesterday, which accounted for almost all the surprise on the downside. The CPI-ATE fell to 2.7% year-on-year, which was 0.6 percentage points below Norges Bank’s forecast of 3.3%. The decline was broad-based and certainly a relief for Norges Bank. However, inflationary pressures are still too high and more surprises on the downside are needed for Norges Bank to refrain from another interest rate hike in the near future. We are sticking to our view that a September hike is currently the most likely scenario. More details can be found in Erica’s, Olle’s and Amanda’s comment here .
Swedish preliminary inflation numbers were confirmed. Last week’s preliminary inflation figures (for June) were slightly higher than expected. Yesterday the final figures came out and as expected, the preliminary outcome was confirmed. As we suspected, it was mainly the prices of international travel that explained the surprisingly high service inflation. As a whole, the figures are hardly something that affects the Riksbank’s actions in the near term, and we still believe that the interest rate will remain unchanged throughout 2026.
Important day in the reporting season. On yesterday’s Stockholm Stock Exchange, the half-year reports were in the spotlight and we saw both report winners (such as SEB and Hexatronic) and report losers (such as Axfood and Handelsbanken). After a somewhat volatile journey, the day ended in the red for both the large-cap index OMXS30 (-0.4%) and the broad OMXSPI (-0.1%). Today follows a new exciting reporting day when, among others, Sweden’s most owned stock, Investor, opens the books. The same applies to two of Investor’s most important portfolio holdings, ABB and Atlas Copco, as well as a number of other large companies.
Small changes in Swedish unemployment. This morning, the Swedish Public Employment Service presented new labour market statistics. Around 366,000 people were registered as unemployed in June. This corresponds to 6.6 percent of the labour force (6.4% without seasonal adjustment), which is largely unchanged from May. The number of vacancies rose from 65,000 to 72,000.
Have a great Thursday and take care of yourselves and each other!
Kilde: SEB, https://research.sebgroup.com/macro-ficc/reports/78547
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
